Sample Estimate — 4712 Beauchamp St, Houston Heights
4712 Beauchamp St, Houston Heights, TX 77009
Single-Family, 3 bed / 2 bath — 1,580 sq ft
Estimated ARV
$395,000
Location Index
Houston, TX — CCI Multiplier: 0.97 (RSMeans 2025)
Report Generated
April 17, 2026, 10:42 AM
Best Case (P10)
$79,800
Base Case (P50)
$107,200
Worst Case (P90)
$145,900
The deal has merit, but the repair burden needs to move to the seller.
Repair budget ($107,200) is 27% of estimated ARV ($395,000). The repair burden is material — negotiate to shift cost risk to the seller before committing.
Negotiation Leverage
- Foundation scope uncertain — pier-and-beam settlement extent unknown. Engineer quote could add $4,800–$12,000.
- HVAC: $6,200–$9,800 estimated repair
- Kitchen: $18,000–$31,000 estimated repair
- Plumbing: $3,200–$9,000 estimated repair — cast-iron drain camera inspection needed
Next step
Request a seller concession of ~$18,000 using the HVAC, foundation, and plumbing scope above. Counter with these specific cost ranges as evidence before closing the option period.
Scope of Work — 15 Items
| Category | Description | Low | Mid | High | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Foundation | Pier-and-beam leveling — perimeter settlement | $4,800 | $7,200 | $12,000 | low |
| Roof | Full shingle replacement, 22 sq, 30-yr arch. | $8,500 | $10,400 | $13,200 | high |
| HVAC | Replace 3-ton split system, ductwork repair | $6,200 | $7,800 | $9,800 | medium |
| Electrical | Panel upgrade 100A → 200A, GFCI bathrooms | $2,800 | $3,600 | $5,200 | medium |
| Plumbing | Cast-iron drain partial replacement + re-slope | $3,200 | $5,800 | $9,000 | low |
| Kitchen | Full gut — cabinets, counters, appliances | $18,000 | $24,000 | $31,000 | medium |
| Bathrooms | Primary full gut; hall bath vanity + fixtures | $9,500 | $13,000 | $17,500 | medium |
| Flooring | LVP throughout + tile baths (1,580 sq ft) | $6,800 | $8,400 | $10,200 | high |
| Windows | 8 single-hung replacements, vinyl | $3,600 | $4,400 | $5,800 | high |
| Doors | Exterior entry + 6 interior hollow-core | $1,800 | $2,400 | $3,200 | high |
| Drywall | Moisture damage patches, ceilings texture match | $2,200 | $3,400 | $5,600 | medium |
| Paint | Interior full, exterior trim + fascia | $4,200 | $5,400 | $6,800 | high |
| Landscaping | Grade drainage, sod front yard, clear rear | $2,400 | $3,200 | $4,800 | medium |
| Permits | Structural, electrical, plumbing permits | $1,800 | $2,200 | $2,800 | high |
| Contingency | 10% buffer on structural unknowns | $4,000 | $6,000 | $9,000 | medium |
| Total | $79,800 | $107,200 | $145,900 | ||
2 items flagged for on-site inspection — estimates are indicative only.
AI Analyst Notes
Analyst Summary
Written by the analyst agent after reviewing the full scope, regional pricing, and validation results.
Key assumptions: ARV of $395K based on 3/2 Heights comps within 0.5 mi. Structural scope based on seller disclosure of "settling floors." All pricing uses RSMeans 2025 data at Houston CCI 0.97.
Items requiring verification: Foundation scope (pier-and-beam settlement extent unknown — structural engineer quote needed), cast-iron drain (camera inspection to determine linear footage), HVAC system age (assumed full replacement).
What a real inspection should verify: Whether foundation movement is active or historic. Actual extent of cast-iron drain replacement. Roof decking condition beneath shingles. Presence of knob-and-tube wiring behind drywall.
Trust score: 74/100 — Moderate. 2 low-confidence items in top-5 cost contributors. Estimate supports buy-or-walk decisions before option period; not suitable as a final construction budget.
ARV vs. line-item totals sanity check
Mid estimate is 25.8% of ARV — within healthy range
Foundation scope detected — inspection required
Pier-and-beam estimate is indicative only; engineer quote needed
RSMeans city index applied (Houston CCI 0.97)
National prices adjusted for local labor market
Cast-iron drain confidence LOW — flagged
Camera inspection needed to quantify extent of replacement
Permit costs included
Structural + MEP permits estimated at $2,200
HVAC system age uncertain — mid estimate used
Age not specified in input; assumes full replacement
No asbestos/lead abatement in scope
Pre-1978 property; manual verification recommended before demo
MAO formula validated (70% rule applied)
Conservative MAO clears lender underwriting threshold
Probabilistic Underwriting
Monte Carlo — 10,000 Scenarios
10,000 simulated rehabs using historical cost variance in your region. The chart shows the probability distribution of total rehab cost — P10 is your best case, P90 is your worst. MAO prices at three investor risk thresholds.
Conservative MAO
$152,600
90% chance of profit
Standard MAO
$162,800
50% P(investor return)
Aggressive MAO
$171,400
20% ROI at median rehab
Most runs finish in about a minute.
Your timing depends on report size and analysis depth.
This report was generated from a property description and a standard home inspection PDF. The staged underwriting pipeline priced 15 line items, ran 10,000 Monte Carlo scenarios, and calculated a conservative MAO.
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