Rehab risk calculator
Know what you do not know — before you bid.
Rehab risk is not just about total cost — it is about how wide your range is and where the surprises are likely to come from. Scopebase scores rehab risk per trade, surfaces the items most likely to blow the budget, and tells you what needs verification before you commit.
What drives rehab risk
Six factors determine how wide your repair range is and how much your estimate could shift after a contractor walkthrough.
Scope ambiguity
When inspection language is vague — 'signs of moisture,' 'older panel,' 'settling floors' — the actual repair scope could be anywhere in a wide range. Low-resolution scope inputs produce wide cost bands.
Hidden damage potential
Foundation movement, cast-iron drain deterioration, and knob-and-tube wiring behind drywall are high-cost items that inspection reports often flag without quantifying. These inflate the risk score.
Major-system age
Roof, HVAC, and water heater age drives replacement probability. A 20-year-old roof on a Houston house has a different risk profile than a 5-year-old roof. Age data — when present — shifts confidence.
Regional pricing variance
Labor costs for the same trade can vary by 25–40% between markets. Scopebase uses RSMeans city-index multipliers to anchor pricing, but thin local data widens the confidence band.
Permit exposure
Structural, electrical, and plumbing work that requires permits adds cost and time risk. Unpermitted prior work can trigger code-compliance corrections that were not in the original scope.
Sequencing dependencies
Some repairs must happen before others. Discovering foundation problems after framing has started, or discovering cast-iron drain issues after tile is down, multiplies cost. Scopebase flags these sequencing risks.
How Scopebase scores risk
Every line item in a Scopebase estimate carries a confidence level. The overall uncertainty score is derived from the distribution of confidence across the scope — weighted by cost contribution.
High confidence
Clear scope from inspection report. Reliable regional pricing data. Estimate is well-supported and unlikely to move more than 15–20% on site verification.
Medium confidence
Scope partially identified. Some assumptions made about extent or condition. Estimate may shift meaningfully when a contractor walks the property.
Low confidence
Scope unclear or inferred from indirect signals. High variance expected. These items must be verified on site before you offer or negotiate a repair credit.
What the risk output looks like
Every Scopebase analysis returns a structured risk summary alongside the repair estimate.
Sample — Houston Heights flip
Uncertainty score: 38% — Moderate risk
Sample output. Real output is based on your inspection report, property notes, and ARV.
Frequently asked questions
What is a rehab risk score?
A rehab risk score is a composite measure of how uncertain a repair estimate is. It is based on the number of low-confidence line items, the breadth of the repair range (High minus Low), and whether major systems like foundation, HVAC, or plumbing have flagged issues. A higher risk score means more of your estimate depends on information you do not have yet.
How does Scopebase calculate confidence per line item?
Confidence is set based on the quality of the input: whether the inspection report named the specific issue, whether a trade area has known variables (e.g., cast-iron drain extent), and whether regional pricing data for that trade is well-calibrated. High confidence means Scopebase has clear scope and reliable pricing. Low confidence means one or both are uncertain.
What triggers a deal-killer flag?
Deal-killer flags are triggered by issues in the five major systems — foundation, roof, HVAC, plumbing, and electrical — that can either exceed the normal repair budget by a large margin or introduce timeline risk that changes the deal math.
What is an uncertainty score?
The uncertainty score is the spread between the Low and High repair estimates expressed as a percentage of the Mid estimate. A 40% uncertainty score means your worst case is 40% higher than your base case. Wide uncertainty scores indicate more reliance on assumptions that need on-site verification before committing to an offer.
How is Scopebase different from a ChatGPT rehab estimate?
ChatGPT produces a single number from general training data. Scopebase uses regional pricing benchmarks (RSMeans with city-index multipliers), parses inspection findings into trade-level line items, and returns a Low/Mid/High range with per-item confidence ratings.
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